Why the early primaries are especially important for Bernie Sanders

Most electability arguments can't really be tested. But we'll know pretty quickly if the 'political revolution' is working.

Bernie Sanders.
(Image credit: Illustrated | Fourleaflover/iStock, viafilms/iStock, REUTERS/Yana Paskova)

The 2020 Democratic primary campaign has been a contest not merely of which candidate's ideas and policies most appeal to Democratic voters but of which potential nominee is most likely to defeat Donald Trump in November's general election. Polling has shown that a majority of democratic voters say it is more important for the nominee to have the best chance of beating Trump than to share their position on most issues, and several of the Democratic contenders have made "electability" central part of their campaign message. The problem with electability arguments, however, is that most of the time they can't actually be put to the test until it's too late.

Usually, electability claims are based on pretty limited data or vague theories. Candidates can point to their past election performance in swingish states, like Sen. Amy Klobuchar does in Minnesota, arguing the ability to perform well in a purple-ish, upper Midwest state would have made the difference for Democrats in the 2016 election. But how you reach voters in a state with just five million residents doesn't necessarily translate to running in a diverse country with 330 million people. Those candidates may perform better in their home states but they may also perform much worse in others.

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Jon Walker

Jon Walker is the author of After Legalization: Understanding the Future of Marijuana Policy. He is a freelance reporter and policy analyst that focuses on health care, drug policy, and politics.