Will the Trump economy doom the Democrats?

So much for that elusive recession

President Trumps economy.
(Image credit: Illustrated | iStock/ChrisGorgio, Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Last week's surprisingly strong GDP report was probably a shocker to many Democrats. Many on the left have been counting on — or perhaps even sotto voce rooting for — a recession that would tank President Trump's re-election chances. Not another economy-shattering financial crisis, of course. The #Resistance doesn't want underwater mortgages or collapsing 401k balances anymore than anyone else. But maybe just enough of a dip to recapture the Rust Belt in 2020. No pain, no gain, America.

And they had reasons! Okay, they might not know what an inverted yield curve is exactly. (It's when long-term interest rates are lower than short-term rates.) But when the infrequent occurrence happened in late March, they probably discovered it's often seen on Wall Street as a recession warning sign. Moreover, the Federal Reserve has been raising rates, historically a leading cause of recessions. Finally, the current lengthy economic expansion — a record 10-years-old if it lasts through July — has to peter out eventually, right?

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James Pethokoukis

James Pethokoukis is the DeWitt Wallace Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute where he runs the AEIdeas blog. He has also written for The New York Times, National Review, Commentary, The Weekly Standard, and other places.