What Trump's lousy approval rating means for his 2020 chances

The president is deeply unpopular. But he could still win.

President Trump and Barack Obama.
(Image credit: Illustrated | Alex Wong/Getty Images, Drew Angerer/Getty Images, Screenshot/FiveThirtyEight)

Recent state-by-state polls tracking President Trump's approval rating have Democrats feeling very optimistic about their 2020 chances. This week, polling company Civiqs unveiled a poll showing Trump's approval rating to be negative in swing state after swing state, including North Carolina (-9), Michigan (-11), Pennsylvania (-6), and Iowa (-3). His approval was dead even in Florida and Wisconsin. The only swing state in which his number was in the black was Ohio. Ominously for the president, he is also struggling in map-expanding states for the Democrats like Georgia and Arizona.

If Trump in 2020 lost all the states where his approval is currently net negative, he would get clobbered in the Electoral College in a nearly precise inverse of his 2016 margin, 311-227. This holds true even if you give him Florida and Wisconsin. But before Democrats start prematurely popping those sparkling wine corks and envisioning their triumphant election night parties, they should consider recent history, which suggests that Trump, while deeply vulnerable, may be in better shape for the general election than these grim numbers suggest.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up
To continue reading this article...
Continue reading this article and get limited website access each month.
Get unlimited website access, exclusive newsletters plus much more.
Cancel or pause at any time.
Already a subscriber to The Week?
Not sure which email you used for your subscription? Contact us
David Faris

David Faris is an associate professor of political science at Roosevelt University and the author of It's Time to Fight Dirty: How Democrats Can Build a Lasting Majority in American Politics. He is a frequent contributor to Informed Comment, and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, The Christian Science Monitor, and Indy Week.