Why can't we live with a nuclear North Korea?
Panicked hyperbole will never solve the North Korea problem. It's time to be realistic.
How do you "solve" the North Korea problem? This question has dominated U.S. foreign policy discussions for years. Former President Barack Obama warned President Trump before his inauguration that the small, poor, nuclear-armed country could pose the most urgent foreign policy challenge of his presidency.
Despite extensive economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure, North Korea continues to advance its military power. Last week, North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could potentially reach the entire continental U.S. American politicians are scrambling to figure out how to respond.
Unfortunately, the first and primary position on the part of most U.S. policymakers has been panicked overreaction. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told CNN, "If we have to go to war to stop this, we will. If there's a war with North Korea it will be because North Korea brought it on itself, and we're headed to a war if things don't change."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
AEI Fellow Marc Thiessen argued in The Washington Post that Trump should declare North Korea "a ballistic missile 'no-fly zone' and a nuclear weapons 'no-test zone.'"
"Any attempt by North Korea to launch a ballistic missile will be met with a targeted military strike either taking out the missile on the launch pad or blowing it up in the air using missile defense technology," he argued. "And any attempt to test a nuclear weapon will be met with a targeted strike taking out the test site and other related nuclear facilities."
North Korea is an oppressive and dictatorial country, one that has committed a plethora of human rights atrocities against its citizens, and which uses propaganda and antagonism to anger its opponents on the world stage. We know this. But while concerning, this new step by North Korea is neither unexpected nor revolutionary. The fundamentals of the situation remain unchanged. Policymakers need to take a deep breath.
North Korea's iterative military advancement and growth does not negate the fact that it is a poor, weak country with few resources at its disposal. Its power and potential for harm are vastly overshadowed by our own. As frightening as this new ICBM test may seem, it changes little (or at least, should change little) for U.S. foreign policy.
Calling for war or military strikes to remove their nuclear capabilities is a counterproductive and dangerous policy. U.S. resources and presence in the region are already considerable — as American University scholar Joshua Rovner explains, "The best way to deter nuclear powers from using their arsenals to act more conventionally aggressive is by maintaining local conventional superiority. This enhances deterrence without risking escalation, which in turn reduces questions about credibility and alleviates stress on alliances."
South Korea's President Moon Jae-in opposes preventive strikes in response to North Korea's recent tests, and has expressed some concern that the U.S. might act prematurely. "We must stop a situation where North Korea miscalculates and threatens us with nuclear weapons or where the United States considers a pre-emptive strike," he said at a recent emergency meeting in Seoul.
Attempting to overthrow or undermine North Korea's regime would have massive implications for South Korea, as well as for China and North Korea's vulnerable citizenry. In this instance, preventive military action would result in a bevy of unintended consequences, yet nobody in the Trump administration talks about this.
North Korea, after all, is acting in its own perceived interests. Rightly or wrongly, it sees the U.S. and South Korea as a threat to its sovereignty and often acts in response to our two countries' military exercises in the region. China has warned that isolation and coercive tactics are unlikely to convince Kim Jong Un, whose goal is and always will be the preservation of his regime.
Thus, at some point, it becomes necessary for the U.S. to ask the question: How can we best deter North Korea and avoid preventive military action? We live with a nuclear China and Russia, after all, and we deter them — surely we can deter the far weaker and poorer North Korea (and save ourselves the catastrophic consequences likely to be created by war with the nation).
Ironically enough, "American might"-espouser Max Boot has suggested just this, stating, "We can live with a nuclear North Korea just as we live with nuclear Russia and China. Would have been nice to avert nuclearization ... but in N Korea it's too late."
In the face of massive pressure, Kim has built up his country's nuclear capabilities. That's a good indication that he should be taken at his word that this program is viewed as necessary for survival. That's precisely why it's unlikely that he wants to start a nuclear war with the United States. While North Korea has a handful of nuclear weapons, the U.S. has thousands both deployed and in storage. For Kim, launching a nuclear attack would be suicide.
"Maximum pressure" will not work with North Korea. The U.S. must instead consider a strategy that acknowledges North Korea's purpose and personality — and one that inspires confidence and respect in our allies, most especially South Korea, whose confidence in us seems to have been shaken by recent events.
As Daniel Larison recently argued for The American Conservative:
Although a nuclear North Korea is far from ideal, descending into panic will not serve U.S. interests abroad, and it won't keep America safe. The Trump administration must consider the dangerous ramifications of their belligerent stance toward North Korea, before they make a catastrophic miscalculation.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Gracy Olmstead is a writer and journalist located outside Washington, D.C. She's written for The American Conservative, National Review, The Federalist, and The Washington Times, among others.
-
Today's political cartoons - April 21, 2024
Cartoons Sunday's cartoons - devilish decrees, biblical blunders, and more
By The Week US Published
-
5 carefully selected cartoons about the Trump-Daniels jury selection process
Cartoons Artists take on a stress-free life, rare peers, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Loire Valley Lodges review: sleep, feast and revive in treetop luxury
The Week Recommends Forest hideaway offers chance to relax and reset in Michelin key-winning comfort
By Julia O'Driscoll, The Week UK Published
-
Myanmar: the Spring Revolution and the downfall of the generals
Talking Point An armed protest movement has swept across the country since the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi was overthrown in 2021
By The Week Staff Published
-
Israel hits Iran with retaliatory airstrike
Speed Read The attack comes after Iran's drone and missile barrage last weekend
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Is there a peaceful way forward for Israel and Iran?
Today's Big Question Tehran has initially sought to downplay the latest Israeli missile strike on its territory
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Sudan on brink of collapse after a year of war
Speed Read 18 million people face famine as the country continues its bloody downward spiral
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How powerful is Iran?
Today's big question Islamic republic is facing domestic dissent and 'economic peril' but has a vast military, dangerous allies and a nuclear threat
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US, Israel brace for Iran retaliatory strikes
Speed Read An Iranian attack on Israel is believed to be imminent
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How green onions could swing South Korea's election
The Explainer Country's president has fallen foul of the oldest trick in the campaign book, not knowing the price of groceries
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Ukraine's battle to save Kharkiv from Putin's drones
The Explainer Country's second-largest city has been under almost daily attacks since February amid claims Russia wants to make it uninhabitable
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published